The Big Ten. Wait, the Big Ten?

After the conference season settled, well, nothing, 4 teams (primarily will duke it out for a conference tournament title, and a couple could possibly get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament).

Interestingly, going by the Log5 method (you can read the whole method here) those guys pictured are the favorites to win the conference tournament, with about a 34% chance. Purdue is next with a 26% chance, and my predicted champion Ohio State is 3rd with a 24% chance.

The Badgers have one distinct advantage: While the Big 10 may be slow, the Badgers are sloooooooooow. Their 60 possessions per game is 340th in the country. You often hear commentators talking about how the Badgers don't get rattled, often crediting a Senior point guard or the steady hand of Bo Ryan. But I have a different theory. Why don't the Badgers get rattled (or at least appear to not get rattled)? The pace at which they play. If you think about it, whenever a game is getting a little helter skelter, someone bringing the ball up the floor or the coach will put his two palms towards the ground as if to say "slow down" (or perhaps more accurately settle down).With Jon Leuer back, the Badgers have a good inside presence (although, not on the offensive glass) that helps solidify Wisconsin's 8th best efficiency defense and best defensive rebounding team. By the way, if someone can look at their KenPom page and tell me how they are 8th in defense feel free to let me know.

My pick of Ohio State was for one reason and one reason only: Evan Turner. Turner led the conference in scoring and rebounding, and was 2nd in assists. He used over a third of the Buckeyes' possessions, which was 6th in the nation, and his assist rate (which was 5th best nationally) was 18% better than his turnover rate. About the only thing Turner doesn't do well is shoot threes, but when you can get into the lane as well as he can and kick it out to Jon Diebler (42%) who cares.

But the team with perhaps the most to gain is Michigan State. A good tournament gets them a solid three seed, and possibly a 2. A poor tournament gives them a four seed and a date with Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky or the random 4th #1 seed. While the Spartans have been good this year, a trip to the Elite 8 seems unlikely if they have to go that route.

In any event, with 4 teams who have a legitimate shot to win it all, and Illinois and Minnesota looking to salvage their tourney hopes, Conseco Fieldhouse is the venue you need to have your eyes on this weekend.

Comments (10)

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written by Mr. Soothsayer, March 10, 2010

I hope you like my new name by the way

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My only concern with OSU...
written by tallguyDuke, March 11, 2010

...is their bench in a 3 day/3 game scenario. Not worried about it in the NCAAs (2 games in 3 days isn't a big deal, especially with the lengthened TV timeouts and halftime), but I could see OSU losing their legs in the championship game if they get by Wisconsin. Of course, this is the Big 10, so no wild running up and down the court...still, I'm going to pick MSU to win it.

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written by SouvenirCity, March 11, 2010

Needs more Big Ten > Big East > ACC > Big 12.

Fetch has officially stolen my Big Ten thunder. My favorite thing about the B10 tourney isnit goes until Sunday. Gives the two best teams only 4-5 days off til their next games. I always wonder how these mid-major teams take 8-10 days off before their first NCAA tourney game.

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written by SouvenirCity, March 11, 2010

And my pick to win is Ed Hightower.

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written by PaoloX, March 11, 2010

Don't like your new name Fetch It's too long.

Fjordboy or Weggie are just a few of possibly better alternatives. Others with other fine recommendations?

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written by Dr. Soothsayer, March 11, 2010

You're right Paolo, Mr. Soothsayer is kinda ghey.

Doctor Soothsayer sounds much better

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written by mrejr8234, March 11, 2010

I really like how this was a big ten post but the word Kansas somehow made it's way in the post...

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written by spencer096, March 12, 2010

go bucks

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written by Paolo X, March 12, 2010

Fetch not only does your attempt at a new name suck, but so does your opinion here though you do make a fine attempt to back it up. Hey you youngster look up just how long there has even been a Big Ten tournament. Serious Gen Y bias you are showing here.

The ACC and Big East tournaments are better year-in year-out hands down too for that matter, and I say that having grown up in basketball nutty Indiana during much of the Bob Knight, Gene Keady, and Digger Phelps eras.

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written by Dr. Soothsayer, March 12, 2010

Paolo:

For the B10 tournament, I just meant it's the best one this year, not overall. That's my mistake.

And my new name is awesome thank you very much.

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